The independent model favors Cherepovets at 39.45% home win probability, marginally above the market's 42% implied probability, which technically suggests value on the away team at 2.50. However, history is a strong headwind: Salavat has won 33 of 56 KHL meetings, including 14 of 29 away fixtures. The 91.84% save percentage from Cherepovets' Samoilov and 92.48% from Salavat's Vyazovoy suggest both are well-positioned in net. Recent form is mixed—Salavat lost a friendly to Amur, Cherepovets fell to Torpedo in regulation. The market has priced this efficiently near 50-50, reflecting genuine uncertainty. Modest value exists on Cherepovets at 2.40, but confidence is constrained by Salavat's superior h2h record and the model's own lean probability estimate. Pass or small play only.