How Vantip Tips Work
A plain-English guide to confidence scores, value ratings, and how to read every metric on a Vantip pick.
What does the confidence score mean?
The confidence score (0–100%) is our model's estimated probability that the tipped outcome occurs. A score of 72% means the model believes there is roughly a 72-in-100 chance the pick lands.
For AI-generated tips, this is calculated from form data, head-to-head records, odds movements and a statistical model trained on historical match outcomes. For tips submitted by human tipsters, the confidence score reflects their own conviction level — their professional judgment expressed on the same 0–100 scale.
What are the value dots?
The value dots (● ● ● ● ●) rate how much edge we see in this bet relative to the bookmaker's price — on a scale of 1 to 5. This is separate from confidence.
Our analysts and AI consistently look for tips rated 3 dots or above. Occasionally a lower-value tip with very high confidence is worth following — but value is the primary filter.
Why value matters more than picking winners
Most casual bettors focus on who will win. Professional bettors focus on whether the odds are right. These are different questions.
A bookmaker sets odds implying a certain probability. If our model estimates the true probability is higher, there is positive expected value — placing that bet consistently over time is mathematically profitable, even if individual bets lose.
Over hundreds of bets, consistently finding and backing positive-EV opportunities — even at a modest edge — outperforms simply picking the favourite. This is the core logic behind every Vantip tip.
Model probability vs. bookmaker probability
Starter+ subscribers can see the Edge indicator on unlocked tips: three numbers shown side by side.
A positive edge means the odds offer more than the risk warrants. A negative edge means the bookmaker is pricing the outcome more generously than our model believes — in those cases, no tip is issued.
AI tips vs. tipster tips
Vantip publishes two types of tips, clearly distinguished on every card:
Drafted automatically using our statistical model and Claude AI. Every variable — form, odds, head-to-head, market movement — is processed algorithmically. The confidence score is the model's direct probability output.
Submitted by a verified human tipster. The confidence score reflects their professional conviction — the same scale, applied through experience and research rather than a statistical model. Track records for each tipster are visible on their profile.
Why are some tips locked?
Tips are released progressively. The earlier you see them, the more time you have to shop for the best odds. Subscribers unlock tips sooner:
Even Free accounts see every tip — just closer to kickoff. No tip disappears permanently behind a paywall.