Pivetta (3.43 ERA) faces an experienced but currently fatigued Webb (4.10 ERA, 13 runs in last 17 innings). Padres hold critical wild-card positioning with genuine playoff urgency, having swept Washington; Giants are post-season eliminated. Webb's recent form shows fatigue from 96 starts since 2022. Padres slugging .401 over last 10 games with power-hitting core. Giants recently swept St. Louis but play primarily as spoilers now. Home field (Oracle Park) provides modest Giants cushion. Current market -130 Padres pricing implies 56.5% fair value; estimate 62% probability gives moderate edge. Late-season motivation disparity is the primary driver—Padres fighting for postseason berth while Giants lack stakes.