The Giants won decisively against Miami 26-3 in their preseason game and hold home-field advantage, but this is preseason with limited predictive value. The independent model surprisingly favors the Jets at 59.5% probability against the Giants' 40.5%, suggesting underlying metrics may not align with recent form. The Jets gained momentum with a 17-0 shutout win over Pittsburgh and are getting healthier defensively. Giants' loss of Calvin Austin to torn ACL is notable but not devastating for preseason play. Market odds price Giants at 66% implied probability (1.51), requiring very high confidence to justify backing. The moneyline offers insufficient value at 2.28—your true probability estimate (58-62%) barely justifies the odds. This game carries high variance due to preseason lineup management and resting decisions by coaching staffs.