Lokomotiv Yaroslavl defends the 2024-25 Gagarin Cup as home favourites against Shanghai Dragons (formerly Kunlun). The independent model forecasts a 65.67% home win probability, aligning with Lokomotiv's championship pedigree and strong recent form. However, the 1.45 moneyline implies 69% probability, pricing in ~3-4% overconfidence relative to the model. While Lokomotiv should win most iterations of this matchup, there is insufficient margin of value at current odds. The Dragons represent a weak away opponent, but the home odds already reflect this advantage. Pass this market or await price improvement.