Seattle enters as defending Super Bowl champions hosting the team they just defeated, with an intact roster versus New England's injury-depleted backfield. TreVeyon Henderson's absence is a significant blow to the Patriots' offensive balance. The Seahawks' 61.72% model probability aligns closely with market-implied 64%, leaving minimal value on the home moneyline at 1.56. While Seattle is clearly favored with legitimate advantages—home field, recent victory context, roster continuity—the market has priced in most of this edge. Confidence reflects moderate probability of a Seahawks win supported by the model, Super Bowl history, and injury differential, but the odds offer limited edge for betting purposes. This is a chalk play with acceptable but not exceptional value.