The independent three-way model assesses SKA's win probability at 62.01%, higher than Lada's 17.73% but materially lower than the bookmaker's implied 67% from 1.50 odds. This creates a value problem: the home favorite is priced too aggressively. While SKA carries clear quality advantages—stronger recent roster moves, Sergei Ivanov on loan from Columbus, home ice—the model indicates the market has overshot true win probability by approximately 5 percentage points. Lada showed fighting form in preseason (3-1 win over Traktor), and their structural rebuilding suggests improved tactics vs. last season's disastrous 20-68 record. For moneyline betting, value exists only when estimated probability exceeds market-implied probability. At 62% SKA win rate versus 67% implied odds, this is a modest fade of the home favorite. Confidence is grounded in the model's statistical foundation and current roster data rather than gut prediction.