This is the second leg of a Conference League playoff after a goalless first leg. Hapoel Tel Aviv have demonstrated defensive discipline with three clean sheets in their last five matches, while Atalanta are dealing with multiple injuries on the attacking front. The previous encounter saw minimal clear-cut chances despite Atalanta's superior possession. Atalanta's absence of Sulemana, Scalvini, and other key attacking players limits their offensive threat significantly. Hapoel have proven capable of shutting down play—their 4-2-3-1 compact formation neutralized Atalanta's attack in the first leg. Recent data shows Under 2.5 has hit in three of Atalanta's and three of Hapoel's last five matches. While Atalanta are strong favorites to progress, the path to victory against this disciplined Israeli side runs through efficiency rather than open play. Market odds of 2.10 for Under 2.5 reflect fair value, with my estimated 52% probability offering a modest edge.