Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · 29 Sep 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Result: Lost (4–1)
Mozambique host Sudan in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on 29 Sep 2026, kick-off 13:00 UTC. Recent form: Mozambique 1D-4L; Sudan 1W-recent, 0 away goals in 6.
Every settled tip is public on the track record.
Sudan have failed to score in six consecutive away matches—a severe and documented weakness. Historical head-to-head data shows three of four meetings produced under 2.5 goals, with the most likely scoreline being a narrow 1-0 home win. Mozambique's defensive vulnerabilities (1.9 goals conceded per game) are real, but Sudan's inability to convert on the road is more extreme. The independent model (47.83% home, 20.58% away) implies a tight contest, yet Sudan's zero-goal away streak suggests they will likely blank again in Maputo. Bookmaker odds for Under 1.5 typically reflect 45-48% probability; our analysis, grounded in Sudan's documented away-goal drought and historical low-scoring head-to-heads, supports 62-65% true probability. This is a statistical mismatch offering clear value.
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