Major League Soccer · 19 Aug 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Result: Won (0–1)
New York Red Bulls host Nashville SC in the Major League Soccer on 19 Aug 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC. Recent form: New York Red Bulls: L-W-D-W-L; Nashville SC: W-W-L-D-W.
Every settled tip is public on the track record.
Nashville SC represents the statistical edge despite home odds. The visitors lead the Eastern Conference with 43 points from 13-2-4 record, significantly outpacing the Red Bulls' eighth-place 7-8-4 form. Most recent displays: Nashville defeated Inter Miami 4-1, while New York lost 2-1 to Atlanta. Samuel Surridge's exceptional efficiency (12 goals in 909 minutes) and Hany Mukhtar's creative dominance (24 chances created) represent the league's most dangerous attack. The Red Bulls face injuries to Rafael Mosquera and AJ Marcucci, compounding a form advantage for Nashville. Home advantage at Sports Illustrated Stadium typically values 0.3-0.4 goals but proves insufficient against Nashville's established superiority. The independent model predicts Nashville at 41.62% win probability; market odds imply 45%, creating modest value. Confidence capped at 72 due to home advantage's modest buffer and inherent MLS volatility.
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