Italy - Serie A · 11 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Result: Won (1–1)
Sassuolo host AC Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 11 Oct 2026, kick-off 16:00 UTC. Recent form: Sassuolo L-W-D-D-W (2W 2D 1L); AC Milan W-L-D-D-W (2W 2D 1L).
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Both back lines are disrupted. Sassuolo are without Idzes, their first-choice centre-back, plus Koné, Pieragnolo and Candé, so Caleta-Car and Leysen are expected to start in the middle. Milan are moving to a back four with Gila, a centre-back, at right-back. Estupiñán is doubtful after a knee sprain, so Bartesaghi is likely at left-back, and Saelemaekers is out until the new year. Sassuolo have scored in every match this season and have failed to keep a clean sheet in six straight games across all competitions. Milan have scored and conceded in all three of their away league games. Milan's attack has scored 10 goals in five league games, the third-best total in Serie A. Sassuolo also beat Milan 2-0 in May. Weakened defences on both sides suggest a slightly higher chance of both teams scoring than the market's 55.3%. The independent model favours a Milan win at 52%, which is close to the market, so I'm not using model_gap. The value is small, about 3 points.
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