Sweden vs Poland Prediction

AI Match Analysis

Sweden advanced from League C and marked their League B return with a 2-1 home victory over Romania, with Gyökeres scoring despite Alexander Isak's absence. Their eight-game unbeaten run (W6, D2) reflects consistency, while they hold a 6-2 home record since June 2024. Poland managed only 0.88 expected goals in a goalless draw away to Bosnia and remain winless in four matches. Crucially, Poland have lost eight of their last nine away matches against Sweden and look tactically blunt—even with Lewandowski, they generated minimal attacking threat. While Isak's injury reduces Sweden's peak offensive output, Gyökeres remains dangerous and the matchup favours high-volume chance creation. A 3-2 playoff win in March and 2-1 last week suggest scoring patterns above 2.5; Poland's defensive record and lack of attacking threat mitigate BTTS risk. The market prices this at approximately 55% for Under 2.5; I estimate 58-60% for Over, creating modest edge.