EV Calculator

Expected value is only as good as your probability estimate. A positive result is not a guaranteed win, and Kelly is shown for education: most bettors use a fraction of it. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.

What expected value means

Expected value (EV) is the average profit per unit staked if you could place the same bet many times. It equals your probability of winning times the profit on a win, minus your probability of losing times the stake. A positive EV means the price is better than your estimate says it should be; it does not mean the next bet wins.

Edge and break-even probability

The odds imply a break-even probability: 1 divided by the decimal odds. Your edge is your own probability minus that figure, in percentage points. At odds of 2.00 the break-even rate is 50%, so a 53% estimate is a 3-point edge. Bookmaker odds include a margin, so use the margin remover to see the fair probability behind a price.

Why your probability is the weak link

The calculator is exact; the input is not. Small errors in your probability swing the result a lot, which is why we show the fair odds for your estimate. Read how Vantip measures edge and what it can and cannot tell you on the Tips Explained page, and see every settled pick on the Track Record.