Why Short Odds Lose Money: Our Own Results
Heavy favourites win often, but that does not make them profitable. Our settled picks show how return changes with the price.
Backing heavy favourites feels safe. They win most of the time. But winning often and making money are different things, and our own settled picks show the gap.
The numbers
These figures cover every settled Vantip pick with a usable price as of 6 November 2026, flat 1-unit stakes at the published odds, voids excluded. ROI is profit divided by units staked.
- Odds under 1.30: 162 picks, 79.0% hit rate, ROI −6.9%.
- Odds 1.30 to 1.49: 210 picks, 71.4% hit rate, ROI −0.1%.
- Odds 1.50 to 1.99: 1,198 picks, 57.9% hit rate, ROI +0.8%.
- Odds 2.00 to 2.99: 479 picks, 46.6% hit rate, ROI +6.0%.
- Odds 3.00 and above: 119 picks, 26.9% hit rate, ROI +9.6%.
The shortest prices win nearly four times in five and still lose money. Longer prices win less often and returned more per unit staked in this sample.
Why it happens
At odds of 1.25 you need to win 80% of the time just to break even. If the true chance is 75%, every bet is a small loss, and one upset wipes out several wins. Bookmaker margin takes a larger share of the return on short prices, and small errors in a probability estimate matter more when the break-even line is so high.
What we read from it, and what we do not
These are samples, not proof. The groups differ in size, the 3.00+ band is small, and a few months of results can move a lot. But the pattern is consistent enough that Vantip already applies a minimum price of 1.30 to the Starter weekly picks and is testing the same floor for Pro and Elite, and the wider data is on the Track Record, including the markets that are losing.
You can test any price yourself with the EV calculator, and the way we measure edge is explained on Tips Explained. Past results do not guarantee future results. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
Written by the Vantip Editorial Team. See how we analyse matches and build our predictions.
For informational purposes only. Betting involves financial risk — never stake more than you can afford to lose. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.